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General

Orica is a decentralized prediction market protocol built on Solana. It allows users to trade on the outcomes of future events by buying and selling shares that represent different possibilities.
In a prediction market, you buy shares of an outcome you believe will occur. If you’re right, you redeem your shares for $1 each. If you’re wrong, your shares become worthless. The current share price reflects the market’s collective belief in that outcome’s probability.
Orica is built on Solana, chosen for its high throughput, low transaction fees, and fast finality. All market state, positions, and settlements are handled by on-chain smart contracts.
All trading on Orica is done in USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. You’ll need USDC in a Solana wallet to participate.

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Trading

Prices are determined by a bonding curve algorithm based on supply and demand. When more people buy shares of an outcome, the price increases. When people sell, the price decreases. There’s no order book—you trade directly with the smart contract.
Orica charges a small fee on each trade:
  • Protocol fee: 1.25% of trade value
  • Creator fee: 0.45% of trade value
  • Redemption fee: 0.30% on winnings
No. Once a market’s close time passes, trading is disabled. You must wait for resolution before redeeming any winning positions.
Your shares remain in your position account indefinitely. You can redeem winning shares at any time after a market resolves. There is no expiration on redemption.

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AI Resolution & Disputes

Markets are resolved by Claude 4.5 Sonnet, a frontier AI model accessed via OpenRouter. The AI uses Firecrawl to gather evidence from across the web and determines outcomes based on the market’s resolution criteria. After resolution, there is a dispute window where participants can challenge incorrect outcomes.
When a market closes:
  1. Research Phase: Firecrawl scrapes relevant sources, news, and data feeds
  2. Analysis: Claude 4.5 Sonnet evaluates the evidence against the market’s criteria
  3. Submission: The AI submits the outcome on-chain with reasoning and sources
  4. Dispute Window: Stakeholders can challenge if they believe the AI is wrong
You can vote to dispute the AI’s determination. If enough weighted votes support the dispute (>50% of total pool weight), the dispute becomes active and can override the AI’s resolution. This provides human oversight over the automated system.
Your voting power in a dispute equals the value of your position in that market. Users with larger stakes have more influence on the outcome.
If the AI determines a market cannot be definitively resolved due to ambiguous criteria or unavailable data, the outcome is marked as “Unresolvable” (index 255) and all participants receive refunds proportional to their positions.
Yes, AI systems can make errors. This is why Orica includes a dispute mechanism—if stakeholders believe the AI’s resolution is incorrect, they can challenge it through weighted voting. The combination of AI analysis and human oversight aims to produce accurate outcomes.

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Technical

  • On-chain: Market state, positions, trades, and settlements
  • IPFS: Market metadata, images, and resolution evidence
  • API: Indexed data for fast queries (derived from on-chain state)
The Orica smart contracts are deployed on Solana mainnet. The SDK and documentation are open source. Contact the team for information about specific components.
Any Solana wallet that supports the Wallet Adapter standard, including:
  • Phantom
  • Solflare
  • Backpack
  • Ledger (via compatible wallet)
  1. Install the SDK: npm install @orica/sdk
  2. Read the Quickstart guide
  3. Explore the API Reference
  4. Join our Discord for support